Bitcoin went down to $6500 last days. This meant a new test of the previous minimum level from $6000. In conclusion: did we reach the bottom? It’s too early to say that. I have said and I will repeat it: Bitcoin’s downward trend will be canceled when we break up the descending trendline and when it is confirmed as a support.
A few weeks ago I had a break up of the downward trend line, but unfortunately, the price did not keep up the trend line. In conclusion, at this moment we have no bull run signal. Theoretically, Bitcoin could fall to $4900. Could Bitcoin fall even further? Possibly, but quite unlikely at this time. I think $4900 could represent the bottom of Bitcoin. edited update
The resistance lines are: The support lines are:
R1 – 0,73 USD S1 – 0,45 USD
R2 – 1,25 USD S2 – 0,25 USD
R3 – 1,4 USD
What can we expect in the next week?
If Bitcoin will fall to $4900, XRP/USD will fall to the main support of $0.25 (S2). Probably the XRP/USD price will stop in the $0.30-0.35 area. For now, we have no bull run on XRP/USD. The volumes traded these days are quite low. I doubt we will have significant movements in the next seven days. Currently, the price is maintained within a Falling Wedge pattern (bull pattern). The pattern is closing sometime in July. TA, says then we could have a bull run. We will see if it is. In the absence of huge volumes, I expect a price movement in the range of $0.35-0.60.
Before concluding the technical analysis today, I would like to say a few things.
I noticed that on various forums, as the technical analysis on Crypto Market has a bad reputation. Why? It seems that the bad reputation of the technical analysis on Crypto Market is due to the predictive part of the technical analysis. Specifically, it’s about drawing on the chart those arrows that indicate the likely price move for the next period. In fact, what is the point of discontent with the technical analysis on Crypto Market?
It is considered that placing these arrows on the chart has a manipulative role. Let’s take a look at the few complaints. I did some research and draw some conclusions. Generally, Forex, Gold, and Oil are used very rarely, the predictive component in a technical analysis. The predictive component is especially used on the Crypto Market.
Often, a beginner does not have the patience to read a technical analysis or does not understand it. He will look at the drawing and the arrows with the probable direction, leaving out a lot of other important information from the technical analysis. Let’s not forget that the predictive part of a technical analysis must be regarded with a bit of skepticism.
But a beginner in trading on Crypto Market does not know that he has to look with a bit of skepticism, the predictive part of a technical analysis. Let’s not forget that a technical analysis is not an exact science. It is based on probabilities, not on certainties. A good technical analyst achieves a predictability rate of over 70%. An unprofessional technical analyst, or who is not impartial, may have a predictive rate below 50%. That’s why this bad reputation was created, about the technical analysis on Crypto Market.
I believe that a person who has enough technical analysis and market experience will never be manipulated by a technical analysis. At the same time, a beginner, due to the lack of TA knowledge, is likely to be negatively influenced by the predictive part of a TA, especially the arrows showing a likely direction for the price.
In conclusion, I decided to remove from my technical analysis those yellow arrows that indicate the likely price movement. I think that’s right.